Compartmental model, example for Ebola

#modelling #ebola #compartmental models

This short lecture gives a primer in building compartmental models. It covers various aspects around epidemiological modelling such as flow diagrams, writing ordinary differential equations and reproduction number. The example of the dynamics of Ebola is used. Slides Click on the image below to access the slides: About this document Contributors Pierre Nouvellet: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. The source file can be found here. ...

Ebola simulation part 1: early outbreak assessment

#simulation #response #Ebola #epicurve #reproduction number

This practical simulates the early assessment and reconstruction of an Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak. It introduces various aspects of analysis of the early stage of an outbreak, including contact tracing data, epicurves, growth rate estimation from log-linear models, and more refined estimates of transmissibility. A follow-up practical will provide an introduction to transmission chain reconstruction using outbreaker2. A novel EVD outbreak in Ankh, Republic of Morporkia A new EVD outbreak has been notified in the small city of Ankh, located in the Northern, rural district of the Republic of Morporkia. ...

A primer on statistical outbreak analysis

#epicurve #delays #reproduction number #forecasting

This short lecture gives a primer on some methodological aspects of outbreak analysis. It includes content on the estimation of key delays (e.g. incubation period, serial interval) and the characterisation of the underlying distributions, the estimation of growth rates, doubling times, of the basic reproduction number and simple short-term forecasting. Slides Click on the image below to access the slides: About this document Contributors Thibaut Jombart: initial version Contributions are welcome via pull requests. ...

VBD: building a simple model for Zika

#zika #compartmental models

This practical aims to illustrate the basics of vector borne disease (VBD) modelling using R, with an emphasis on how the methods work. We will use a basic model for an arboviral infection as an example. In this practical we will begin by gaining some understanding of the components which contribute to R0 and how potential interventions influence transmission. Later in the practical you will construct a model of Zika transmission to look at the effects of several parameters. ...

Ebola: building few models for Ebola

#Ebola #compartmental models

This practical aims to illustrate the basics of Ebola modelling using R, with an emphasis on how the method works. We will start with a basic model for Ebola. We will then illustrate how to account for an evolving context, e.g. implementation of control measures. Finally, we will explore basic principle of model fitting. Core Concepts From the previous lecture, we will further develop these concepts: Compartmental models Flow diagrams and writing down a model Natural history of Ebola Control strategies Introduction to model fitting Required packages install. ...

Reproducibility using R

#Rmarkdown

Beyond the availability of data and methods, reproducible science requires the traceability of analyses. Whether it is for yourself or for collaborators, as series of tools and good practices can facilitate your work flow, simplify analyses, and prevent the loss of data and results. This lecture provides an introduction to reproducibility using . Slides Click on the image below to access the slides: Related packages knitr knitr provides excellent resources for literate programming mixing with LaTeX or markdown. ...